2020 arrives and still waiting for the “green shoots” to grow

It was in 2009, in the time of Prime Minister Zapatero, when Ms Salgado spoke of “green shoots”, alluding to the beginning of a way out of the economic crisis that was battering Spain. And I ask, has Spain ever really come out of the crisis?

 

Ten years have passed, the decade has changed and we are still waiting for those imaginary green shoots to become leafy trees. It is true that the Spanish economy has managed to grow at a good pace in recent years, even at a higher rate than that of a large part of the economies of our environment, and that as a consequence of this growth we have managed to recovering many jobs that were destroyed in the hardest years of the crisis. But let’s not fool ourselves, we have many problems that we have not been able to solve in all these years and that prevent those green shoots from becoming leafy plants.

On the one hand,the public debt of almost 100% of GDP, which means that each and every Spaniard is indebted to the tune of 25,000 euros – including newborn children – and which, in one way or another, we and our future generations will have to pay for. Approximately a quarter of Spain’s public debt is in the hands of the European Central Bank, so we can affirm that, to a large extent, it is the ECB that supports the Spanish economy with a fragile threa And in this situation, who would lend to us if necessary in the face of an adverse economic situation? The ECB again? It is a doubt that it is better not to resolve…

And what about our level of unemployment? We have an unemployment rate of about 14%, which is much higher than in most of our neighbouring countries. This is a drama that increases if we take into account the very high youth unemployment, job insecurity and many other problems in our labour market. We are in a process of transition to another technology-intensive economic model.as a result, wages are likely to fall as a result of the loss of value of the labour factor. Many professions will be drastically reduced, such as industrial workers, waiters, drivers, lawyers ….. It will depend on how this transition is managed and on the economic context, whether ordinary workers will have a bad or very bad time. The raising the minimum wage in an improvised and hasty manner for electoral interests, without discriminating between the type of companies and areas of activity for the adoption of such a measure, is not the solution to the problem. With all this, the temptation for our politicians to establish a generalised subsistence income is very great, although it would be difficult to maintain it with the resources available to the state, which would probably have to seek financing through tax collection.

On the other hand, the large and little considered, especially by our politicians, black economy which, although it allows many families to survive, nevertheless detracts resources from the State, generates unfair competition and worsens the working conditions and social benefits of those who work in it.

What about the issue we have been talking about for years without any serious steps being taken to resolve it? I refer to the dubious viability of the pension system. We are still waiting for our politicians to reach a state pact to adopt courageous and sensible measures to guarantee pensions in the medium and long term. And I doubt that raising taxes to pay pensions is the solution to the problem, as it needs to be tackled comprehensively and decisively, addressing many other important issues, so that the pension system becomes sustainable over time.

The investment in research and developmentthe education of our young people is a country’s greatest treasure, and yet, we are only lurching from one government to the next, without a clearly defined strategy at the national level for improving the education system and promoting research.

The ageing of the population, which aggravates many of our country’s endemic problems, without any effective measures having been taken to promote the birth rate and attract well-trained immigrants who can bring added value to our country.

The political instability that we have had to suffer for some years now, which generates uncertainty and slows down new national and foreign investment, is something that has come to stay and which, given the current political panorama, seems difficult to solve.

The culture of subsidy and subsidy to which we have become accustomed and which discourages ingenuity, work and entrepreneurship.

The slowness of the justice system, which seems to be stuck in prehistoric times and which places obstacles in the way of commercial relations.

The current tax system, which is full of inefficiencies, should be reformed to make it more progressive and efficient. Among many other changes, we will have to get used to the fact that machines (robots and the like) will also be taxed, thus compensating for the decrease in tax revenue from earned income. It is foreseeable that there will be a shift from direct taxation to indirect taxation(less personal income tax and more VAT) and, of course, the necessary adoption of effective measures to combat fraud, not only in terms of revenue but also in terms of public spending.

Many problems, all interrelated, and many things to be done. Let us hope that with the turn of the decade they will be recognised, counted and acted upon. In the meantime we will continue to look for the green shoots... Happy decade to all of you!